CASES are set to rise "exponentially" within weeks, Sage experts have warned.
It comes after sources claimed Boris Johnson "privately accepts" up to 50,000 Covid annual deaths.
Government advisers warned infections are expected to increase after schools go back.
In the latest SPI-M-O statement from August 11, they noted: "Positivity will highly likely increase again once schools reopen in the autumn."
Adding: "It is highly likely that high prevalence will be seen within schools by the end of September 2021.
"This may reflect either community or within-school transmission, and the role of schools in driving wider transmission remains uncertain.
"Regardless of this, it would be sensible for government to plan for this eventuality."
The i reported today the Prime Minister would only consider bringing in new lockdown measures or restrictions if "the figure of annual deaths looks like it's going to go above 50,000".
A source said: "That means deaths from Covid of 137 a day, or just under 1,000 a week.
“However, it won’t be an immediate reaction. A sustained rate of death of around a 1,000 a week for two or three weeks will, though, lead to discussion on restrictions being reimposed.
"Unfortunately, prime ministers have to weigh up the cost of saving lives to the impact on the economy. No one wants to talk about that’s how it works.”
A Downing Street spokeswoman said: “There is no set number of acceptable deaths from Covid.”
But a senior advisor and chair of SPI-M, which models possible pandemic outcomes, said a cost benefit analysis if each life saved by Covid would have been carried out.
Professor Graham Medley said: “Decisions about how much to intervene to improve public health are always difficult for governments.
“Finding the balance is one of the hardest decisions for governments, but is essentially what we vote politicians to do.
“As we move out of the Covid emergency and into more normality, then it is going to be particularly challenging for government to decide what measures are needed and when to introduce them."
It comes as Covid cases are rising across the UK once more, as the R rate tips over a crucial threshold.
Government experts said today England's R rate – which indicates whether the pandemic is growing or not – is estimated to be 1 to 1.1.
It's up from 0.9 to 1.2 last week – the first increase in six weeks – and the first time it's at least 1 or above in four weeks.
Around one in 70 people in private households in England had Covid-19 in the week to August 20, up from one in 80 in the previous week, according to the latest estimates.
Parents have been told to make returning secondary school pupils complete Covid tests twice a week to stop the virus spreading.
Following the months of chaos for parents dealing with year groups being sent home and online learning, they will now have to make sure students complete two home tests weekly as well as the lateral flow tests at school.
Returning pupils in Year 7 and over will now have to do two lateral flow tests at school, three to five days apart, and test at home twice weekly.
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