STEPHEN GLOVER: Allying our shrunken forces to Japan is an act of vanity that brings war with China one step closer
Who would have guessed it? Britain and Japan have signed a defence agreement which could lead to our troops being sent to Japan. Maybe we’ll soon see Japanese soldiers in uniforms marching up the Mall.
Some people may resent this close military alliance with a former barbaric enemy, whose troops inflicted unspeakable brutalities on British servicemen during World War II.
Around 30,000 Allied military personnel and civilian detainees, including women and children, died in Japanese custody. In recent years, politicians in Tokyo have issued apologies for their predecessors’ excesses without exactly abasing themselves.
And yet, of course, Britain has been a close ally of our erstwhile deadly foe, Germany (before reunification, West Germany), for some 70 years. Past adversaries, however inhumane, become our friends, and former friends sometimes turn into enemies. It is the way of the world.
A defence deal has been signed with Australia, and yesterday Rishi Sunak and the Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida, ratified an historic agreement between their two countries at the Tower of London
Moreover, Japan is a major investor in the UK. Many of us cheerfully drive Japanese cars, or buy Japanese electrical equipment, without giving a second thought to the sins of the past.
No, my qualms about the deal with Japan have little or nothing to do with the war. I simply feel that it is unwise for Britain to be drawn into an alliance with a nation that is increasingly at odds with a rising superpower: China.
The two countries went to war in the late 19th century and again from 1937 to 1945. China suffered terrible punishment, especially on the second occasion, though the Japanese were ultimately defeated.
Times have changed, and the relative power of the two nations has been reversed. China’s economy is at least three times the size of Japan’s, and Beijing spends much more on defence than its smaller neighbour.
As China grows ever stronger — and makes threatening noises towards Taiwan, which from 1895 to 1945 was a Japanese colony — the government in Tokyo grows increasingly nervous. It recently announced a massive 26 per cent hike in its defence budget.
The Government believes, following Brexit, ‘Global Britain’ should widen its horizons beyond Europe, and specifically to the Indo-Pacific region. Prime Minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida is pictured leaving the Tower of London
Since the end of World War II, the United States has been Japan’s main protector, and remains so. But the Japanese government is looking around for additional allies.
A defence deal has been signed with Australia, and yesterday Rishi Sunak and the Japanese prime minister, Fumio Kishida, ratified an historic agreement between their two countries at the Tower of London.
This is my question. Why does the Government believe that it is in our interests to sign a defence deal which will inevitably increase the chances of the UK being drawn into a conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific?
I think there are two main reasons. One is that Uncle Sam is, as always, grateful to its dependable junior partner, Britain, for any military support it can offer in America’s various conflicts around the world.
But there is more to it than that. The Government believes, following Brexit, ‘Global Britain’ should widen its horizons beyond Europe, and specifically to the Indo-Pacific region.
In 2016, when he was Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson declared that ‘Britain is back East of Suez’. He was referring to the decision by the Labour government in the 1960s to wind down our military commitments in the Arabian Peninsula and South-East Asia.
As China grows ever stronger — and makes threatening noises towards Taiwan, which from 1895 to 1945 was a Japanese colony — the government in Tokyo grows increasingly nervous. It recently announced a massive 26 per cent hike in its defence budget
In the past few years, Britain has opened a permanent base in Bahrain for up to 500 military personnel, and secured a long-term lease on docking facilities in Oman. The RAF has been operating out of Qatar.
Meanwhile, in 2021 one of our two new aircraft carriers, the Queen Elizabeth, twice sailed with a flotilla (largely made up of Allied, rather than British, ships) into the South China Sea. The Chinese were apoplectic.
Now, as a Brexiteer who believes that our ruling class has often exaggerated the extent of British decline over the years, I’m in principle delighted to see the Government making new alliances beyond Europe.
Yet there is a terrific mismatch between Britain’s enormous pretensions and the reluctance of the Government to raise military spending, which remains stuck near an historic low of about 2 per cent of GDP. Neither Rishi Sunak nor the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, shows any appetite for increasing it.
When Britain withdrew from East of Suez during the 1960s on grounds of cost, it was spending around 6 per cent of GDP on defence — about three times its current outlay.
Our tiny Army is being reduced still further to 73,000 personnel. The RAF has been cut back savagely, while the Navy has little more than a handful of frigates — which is why, when one of our aircraft carriers goes to sea, it must rely on the ships of allies to make up a credible escort.
I say ‘goes to sea’, though the newest of the two carriers, the Prince of Wales, is in dry dock for the foreseeable future because its starboard propeller shaft went kaput while it was heading to America. This was an embarrassing mechanical failure, which is a not unusual event among the Navy’s dwindled fleet.
Even if our Armed Forces weren’t so depleted, I’d question the wisdom of our trying to cut a figure in the Indo-Pacific since China, which has formidable military resources, regards it as its own bailiwick.
As it is, we have the worst of both worlds. A combination of vaingloriousness and a desire to ingratiate ourselves with our American masters is leading us to take on commitments which we are in no position to fulfil on account of our greatly reduced capabilities.
The alliance with Japan is a case in point. Do we really want to increase the risk of our servicemen being embroiled in a conflict with China, thousands of miles from home?
Britain is a significant European power but it doesn’t have the resources of a world power. There is a war raging on our own continent, not muchmore than 1,000 miles from our shores, which should be occupying most of our attention.
Moreover, the new arrangement with Tokyo appears to be rather one-sided since it seems probable that our troops and weaponry will be more use to the Japanese than theirs can be to us.
It is also noteworthy that, despite pressure from the Government, the Japanese have insisted that any British troops who commit capital crimes in Japan when off-duty will be subject to their death penalty. That does not sound very friendly.
Twice already this century, we have become involved in America’s ill-conceived and futile wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan. They have cost this country a great deal in blood and treasure.
If only our politicians had learnt what happens when we over-extend ourselves in the service of Uncle Sam, but they haven’t. The nightmare is that, if China invades Taiwan, Britain will be dragged in — which will be more likely if we have a military alliance with Japan.
Of course, the Taiwanese have the right to self-determination, even though China has genuine historical claims to the island. We should make the case for Taiwanese independence. But it is not a cause for which British soldiers should die.
Our Government, despite starving the Armed Forces of adequate resources, is possessed by boundless vanity. Global Britain isn’t a global power. The deal with Japan takes us one step closer to calamity.
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