Labor has held its powerful lead in core political support in the wake of the federal budget and kept its edge on economic issues despite a gain in the Coalition’s primary vote from 30 to 32 per cent.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has clawed back ground from a political trough after this year’s election but the gains have not been enough to lift the Coalition out of its election-losing position, given its primary vote of 35.7 per cent at the ballot box in May.
The exclusive findings in the latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted for this masthead by research company Resolve Strategic, show Labor has a primary vote of 39 per cent, unchanged for three surveys in a row.
The Greens have increased their primary vote from 12 to 13 per cent since early October, while support for independents slipped from 9 to 8 per cent and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation fell from 5 to 4 per cent. All these changes were within the margin of error.
Voters continue to favour Labor over the Coalition by 38 to 32 per cent on the key question of which side is best to manage the economy, with a similar result when asked which side is best to manage finances.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also retained his edge over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton to lead by 53 to 19 per cent as preferred prime minister.
While only 28 per cent of voters rated the federal budget as good for themselves and their families, the overall findings show Albanese and Labor have kept their edge on policies from health to education and jobs for the fourth consecutive survey.
Dutton and the Coalition lead by 35 to 33 per cent on a single key issue, national security and defence. Labor leads on 16 other policies measured in the Resolve Political Monitor each month.
But with inflation on the rise and real wages forecast to keep falling, the new survey shows a rethink on Labor’s ability to manage the cost of living.
While Labor had a lead of 17 percentage points over the Coalition on this measure in August, which was the first Resolve Political Monitor since the May election, the gap has shrunk to seven points.
Asked which party and leader is best to manage the cost of living, 31 per cent named Labor and 24 per cent named the Coalition, with 33 per cent undecided and 12 per cent saying others were better.
The Resolve Political Monitor surveyed 1611 eligible voters from Wednesday to Sunday, when debate was dominated by budget forecasts for rising energy prices and falling real wages as well as the repatriation of women and children related to former Islamic State fighters.
Because the Resolve Political Monitor asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they would write “1” on the ballot papers for the lower house at the election, there is no undecided category in the results, a key difference from some other surveys. The national findings have a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.
Asked to name their preferred prime minister, voters chose Albanese over Dutton by 53 to 19 per cent in the latest survey compared to 53 to 18 per cent in the survey in early October and 53 to 19 per cent in the survey in September. The Resolve Political Monitor in August showed the gap was 55 to 17 per cent.
The consistent findings have been a significant turnaround from the period before the election when Albanese lagged the previous prime minister, Scott Morrison, by 36 to 40 per cent in May and 33 to 39 per cent in April.
Albanese has lost ground on questions about his performance as prime minister but maintains his lead over Dutton on the front.
Asked about Albanese, 57 per cent of voters said he was doing a good job and 28 per cent said he was doing a poor job, resulting in a net performance rating of 29 points. The net result was down from 35 points in early October and 39 points in the August survey.
Asked about Dutton, 29 per cent said he was doing a good job and 41 per cent said he was doing a poor job, producing a net rating of minus 12 points, a slight worsening from the result of minus 10 points in early October.
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